Publikationen

The aftermath of civil wars can be a period of heightened contention with increased protest mobilization. However, we still know little about the mechanism through which individuals are motivated to join protests in such settings. I argue that exposure to war violence constitutes an important determinant. Especially when violence is perceived as a collectively shared experience among members of the same ethnic group, it is likely to increase group-based grievances and the propensity to participate in protests. This paper contributes to the discussion by shedding light on the factors that explain individuals’ propensity to engage in protests during post-conflict periods and by testing the mechanism through which the conjectured relationship is assumed to operate.

• Taylor & Francis Online: Terrorism and Political Violence

• Krtsch, R. (2025), Exposure to Violence and Protest Participation: Evidence from Post-Conflict Uganda. Terrorism and Political Violence, 1–20.

This discussion paper examines how evidence-based decision making can be strengthened in fragile and conflict-affected states, using Ukraine’s national evaluation system, its capacities, the ongoing reconstruction and the EU accession process as a case study. The paper theoretically builds on the findings regarding challenges to evidence-based decision making in international civilian interventions in fragile and conflict-affected states. Methodologically, the discussion paper is based on a qualitative case study analysis and is the product of a collaboration between the German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval) and members of the Ukrainian Evaluation Association (UEA).

• Wagner, R., O. Krasovska, V. Gryga, M. Köder, I. Lupashko, L. Margolina and V. Nedzvedska (2025), Strengthening Evidence-Based Decision Making in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States: Insights from Ukraine’s National Evaluation System, DEval Discussion Paper 3/2025, German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), Bonn.

Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fail to represent the inherent uncertainty in the distribution of conflict fatalities. Yet, current early warning systems are preponderantly focused on providing point estimates, while efforts to forecast conflict fatalities as a probability distribution remain sparse. This article introduces the goal and motivation behind the prediction challenge, presents a set of evaluation metrics to assess the performance of the forecasting models, describes the benchmark models which the contributions are evaluated against, and summarizes the salient features of the submitted contributions.

• Sage Journals: Journal of Peace Research

• Hegre, H., P. Vesco, M. Colaresi, J. Vestby, A. Timlick, N. S. Kazmi, A. Lindqvist-McGowan, F. Becker, M. Binetti, T. Bodentien, T. Bohne, P. T. Brandt, T. Chadefaux, S. Drauz, C. Dworschak, V. D’Orazio, H. Frank, C. Fritz, K. S. Gleditsch, … and J. Walterskirchen (2025), The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty. Journal of Peace Research, 62(6), 2070-2087.

Development cooperation in fragile states entails major challenges. To make effective use of the resources made available in the policy field, demanding strategic and operational measures are required, and special efforts on impact measurement and evidence-based policy design are equally necessary. Against this backdrop, a focus of DEval’s work in recent years has been the evaluation and analysis of German development cooperation measures in fragile states.

• Faust, J., A. Kocks, T. Wencker (eds) (2023), Under Challenging Conditions. Development Cooperation in Fragile States, Focus Report, German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), Bonn.

Given the large number of crises and conficts worldwide, it is important to learn from past and current engagements in fragile contexts in order to make positive results replicable and avoid mistakes. The fndings of the joint ministerial evaluation of the German government's civil engagement in Afghanistan demonstrate what can be learned from this engagement, which was unprecedented both fnancially and in terms of human resources. These lessons can be applied in future operations in highly fragile contexts affected by violent confict. This policy brief presents key findings and recommendations of this joint ministerial evaluation.

• Hartmann, C., M. Weeger, A. Lange and K. Mielke (2024), Learning from Germany´s Civil Engagement in Afghanistan, DEval Policy Brief 3/2024, German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), Bonn and German Police University (DHPol), Münster.

Angesichts der großen Zahl von Krisen und Konfikten weltweit ist es wichtig, aus vergangenen und laufenden Engagements in fragilen Kontexten zu lernen, um Erfolge wiederholbar zu machen und Fehler zu vermeiden. Die Erkenntnisse der ressortgemeinsamen Evaluierung des zivilen Engagements der Bundesregierung in Afghanistan zeigen, was aus dem bis dato finanziell wie personell beispiellosen deutschen Engagement für zukünftige Einsätze in hochfragilen und von Gewaltkonflikten geprägten Kontexten gelernt werden kann. In diesem Policy Brief werden die zentralen Ergebnisse und Empfehlungen der Evaluierung vorgestellt.

• Hartmann, C., M. Weeger, A. Lange und K. Mielke (2024), Lernen aus dem zivilen Engagement in Afghanistan, DEval Policy Brief 3/2024, Deutsches Evaluierungsinstitut der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (DEval), Bonn und Deutsche Hochschule der Polizei (DHPol), Münster.