Publikationen

Die vorliegende Evaluierung untersucht die Förderung von Kreislaufwirtschaft in der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit durch das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) und das Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz (BMUV). Dabei werden insbesondere die Relevanz und die Kohärenz der Kreislaufwirtschaft in der deutschen EZ bewertet, um zur Weiterentwicklung der Konzeption und zur verbesserten Zusammenarbeit der Ressorts und Durchführungsorganisationen beizutragen. 

• Deutsche Zusammenfassung (PDF, 717 KB)  Barrierefrei
• Executive Summary (PDF, 779 KB)
• Stellungnahme des BMZ

• Römling, C., K. Guffler, L. Kunert, L. Welk und J. Schnell (2025), Förderung der Kreislaufwirtschaft in der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit, Deutsches Evaluierungsinstitut der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (DEval), Bonn.

The COVID-19 pandemic posed unprecedented challenges for countries worldwide and had serious health and socio-economic consequences. In Germany, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) provided 4.8 billion euros in funding between April 2020 and December 2021 to finance the Emergency COVID-19 Support Programme (CSP).  This programme was aimed at supporting efforts to contain and mitigate the pandemic and its socio-economic consequences in partner countries of German development cooperation. The German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval) conducted an evaluation of the CSP from December 2021 to March 2024 and assessed the programme's relevance, coherence, effectiveness and efficiency.  This policy brief presents key findings and recommendations from the evaluation report.

• Schnell, J., C. Römling, W. Stein, S. Disse and A.G. zu Eulenburg (2025), The BMZ Emergency Covid-19 Support Programme: Success factors and potential improvements for future crisis response programmes, DEval Policy Brief 4/2025, German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), Bonn.

Das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung steht bei der Steuerung und Ausgestaltung der bilateralen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit mit seinen Partnerländern vor großen Herausforderungen, die durch teils drastische Kürzungen der öffentlichen Entwicklungsleistungen in anderen Ländern sowie die Schwächung multilateraler Institutionen weiter zunehmen. Die strategische und zukunftsfähige Ausgestaltung der bilateralen deutschen EZ ist daher von großer Bedeutung. Die DEval-Evaluierung zur strategischen Portfoliosteuerung in der bilateralen deutschen EZ hat untersucht, inwieweit es dem BMZ gelingt, seine Länderportfolios im Geflecht der unterschiedlichen Ansprüche strategisch auszurichten und zu steuern.  Die Ergebnisse und Empfehlungen dieser Evaluierung werden in diesem Policy Brief zusammengefasst und analysiert. 

• Köder, M. und K. Vorwerk (2025), Balance zwischen vielfältigen Ansprüchen: Strategische Portfoliosteuerung und Fachkompetenz für eine wirksame Entwicklungszusammenarbeit, DEval Policy Brief 5/2025, Deutsches Evaluierungsinstitut der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (DEval), Bonn.

Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fail to represent the inherent uncertainty in the distribution of conflict fatalities. Yet, current early warning systems are preponderantly focused on providing point estimates, while efforts to forecast conflict fatalities as a probability distribution remain sparse. This article introduces the goal and motivation behind the prediction challenge, presents a set of evaluation metrics to assess the performance of the forecasting models, describes the benchmark models which the contributions are evaluated against, and summarizes the salient features of the submitted contributions.

• Sage Journals: Journal of Peace Research

• Hegre, H., P. Vesco, M. Colaresi, J. Vestby, A. Timlick, N. S. Kazmi, A. Lindqvist-McGowan, F. Becker, M. Binetti, T. Bodentien, T. Bohne, P. T. Brandt, T. Chadefaux, S. Drauz, C. Dworschak, V. D’Orazio, H. Frank, C. Fritz, K. S. Gleditsch, … and J. Walterskirchen (2025), The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty. Journal of Peace Research, 62(6), 2070-2087.

In 2015, the international community set itself ambitious targets for climate change mitigation in the 2030 Agenda, its Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Agreement. The most important of these targets is limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2 °C and, if possible, below 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial times. The German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval) has examined the relevance, effectiveness and impact of mitigation-relevant Development Cooperation by the German Federal Ministry (BMZ) and the donor community of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well as identified the prerequisites for evaluating its efficiency. This policy brief presents key findings and recommendations of this evaluation study.

• Wencker T. and K. Moull (2025), Climate Change Mitigation through Development Cooperation: Level, distribution, effectiveness and impact of climate policy interventions, DEval Policy Brief 2/2025, German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), Bonn.

In this article, we provide practical guidelines for using interviews in Process Tracing evaluation methods. Process Tracing evaluation method employs more disaggregated theories of the causal process, termed a process theory-of-change. The process theory-of-change serves as the basis for conducting and using interviews in evaluation, including in the selection of respondents and the formulation of questions. The use of interviews varies across the three different phases of data collection in Process Tracing evaluation methods: (1) an exploratory phase that develops a plausible process theory-of-change, (2) a phase for testing and revising the process theory-of-change, and (3) a phase for assessment and addressing loose ends. We present guidelines for conducting and using interviews in each phase, with a particular focus on the testing and revising phase.

• Sage Journals: EES Evaluation 2025

• Camacho Garland, G., D. Beach and J. Schmitt (2025). "Working with interviews in Process Tracing evaluation methods", In: Evaluation, 0(0), European Evaluation Society (EES).