Publications

Die vorliegende Evaluierung untersucht die Maßnahmen der deutschen bilateralen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (EZ) in Schutzgebieten. Das BMZ verfolgt bei der Schutzgebietsförderung zwei übergeordnete Ziele: den Erhalt der globalen Biodiversität und die Sicherung nachhaltiger Einkommen für die lokale Bevölkerung. Die Förderung bewegt sich daher in einem Spannungsfeld zwischen Schutz- und Nutzungsinteressen, die miteinander in Einklang gebracht werden sollen.

• Deutsche Zusammenfassung (PDF, 276 KB)
• Zusammenfassung in Leichter Sprache (PDF, 3.28 MB)
• Online-Anhang (PDF, 3.29 MB)
• Stellungnahme des BMZ

• Sting, A., K. Lücking, M. Heinelt, C. Wicke und A. Dausendschön (2024), Die Schutzgebietsförderung durch das BMZ, Deutsches Evaluierungsinstitut der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (DEval), Bonn.

This evaluation analyses the contribution of German development cooperation to energy access in rural Africa. The aim of the report is to assess the relevance of the BMZ's energy portfolio in Africa; it also examines the effectiveness, impact, sustainability and coherence of interventions for rural energy access via off-grid approaches. A portfolio analysis and content analysis of intervention documents were carried out and literature reviews were prepared. Case studies in Benin, Senegal and Uganda – with quasi-experimental surveys, focus-group discussions and interviews – complete the methodological design.

• Executive Summary (PDF, 608 KB)
• Résumé (French Summary) (PDF, 1.99 MB)
• Online Appendix (PDF, 2.01 MB)
• BMZ Response

• Rauschenbach, M., A. Köngeter, K. Moull and A. Warnholz (2024), Access to (Green) Energy in Rural Africa, German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), Bonn.

Die internationale Gemeinschaft hat sich mit den Zielen für nachhaltige Entwicklung (SDGs), der Agenda 2030 und dem Pariser Klimaabkommen ehrgeizige Ziele für den Klimaschutz gesetzt. Wichtigstes Ziel ist die Begrenzung des globalen Temperaturanstiegs auf deutlich unter 2 °C und möglichst unter 1,5 °C im Vergleich zur vorindustriellen Zeit. Für das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) ist das Thema „Klima und Energie“ eines von sechs Kernthemen. Das BMZ strebt an, Kapazitäten und Institutionen zur Erstellung und Umsetzung von klimarelevanten Politiken zu stärken, mit einem transformativen Klimaportfolio einen grundlegenden Systemwechsel zur Klimaneutralität zu unterstützen, den steigenden Energiebedarf mit einer klimaneutralen Energieversorgung zu decken sowie Städte nachhaltig und klimaneutral zu gestalten. In dieser Evaluierung wird Evidenz zu klimapolitischen Maßnahmen des BMZ, Deutschlands und der OECD-Gebergemeinschaft präsentiert.

• Deutsche Zusammenfassung (PDF, 326 KB)
• Online-Anhang (Deutsch & Englisch) (PDF, 10.06 MB)
• Stellungnahme des BMZ

• Wencker, T., G. Kühltau, I. Mank und K. Moull (2024), Klimaschutz durch Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Beitrag der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit zur Minderung von Treibhausgasemissionen in Entwicklungsländern, Deutsches Evaluierungsinstitut der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (DEval), Bonn.

Evidence on the effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions in low- and middle-income countries has been rapidly growing in recent years, particularly in the agricultural and coastal sectors. Here we address the question of whether results are consistent across intervention types, and risk reduction versus development-related outcomes using a systematic review of 363 empirical observations published in the scientific literature. 

• Villamayor-Tomas, S., A. Bisaro, K. Moull, A. Albizua, I. Mank, J. Hinkel, G. Leppert, M. Noltze (2024). Developing countries can adapt to climate change effectively using nature-based solutions. Commun Earth Environ 5, 214

Development funds are essential to finance climate change adaptation and are thus an important part of international climate policy. How ever, the absence of a common reporting practice makes it difficult to assess the amount and distribution of such funds. Research has questioned the credibility of reported figures, indicating that adaptation financing is in fact lower than published figures suggest. Projects claiming a greater relevance to climate change adaptation than they target are referred to as “overreported”. To estimate realistic rates of overreporting in large data sets over times, we propose an approach based on state-of-the-art text classification. Additionally, we propose a method that incorporates evidence of smaller, higher-quality data to correct predicted rates using Bayes’ theorem. This enables a comparison of different annotation schemes to estimate the degree of overreporting in climate change adaptation. 

• The article in ACL Anthology

• Borst, J., T. Wencker and A. Niekler (2023), "Constructing a Credible Estimation for Overreporting of Climate Adaptation Funds in the Creditor Reporting System", Proceedings of the 7th Joint SIGHUM Workshop on Computational Linguistics for Cultural Heritage, Social Sciences, Humanities and Literature, pp. 99–109, Dubrovnik, Croatia: Association for Computational Linguistics.

This paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing and climate change scenario inputs have been performed to better understand the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme discharge events that cause flooding. Simulations are applied to all major rivers of Morocco, including a total of 16 basins that cover the majority of the country. An ensemble of temperature and precipitation input parameter sets was generated to analyze input uncertainty, an approach that can be extended to other regions of the world, including data-sparse regions. Parameter uncertainty was also included in the analyses. Historical simulations comprise the period 1979–2021, while future simulations (2015–2100) were performed under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Clear patterns of changing flood extremes are projected; these changes are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area of the country. Two types of basins have been identified, based on their different behavior in climate change scenarios. In the Northern/Mediterranean basins we observe a decrease in the frequency and intensity of events by 2050 under both SSPs, whereas for the remaining catchments higher and more frequent high-flow events in the form of flash floods are detected. Our analysis revealed that this is a consequence of the reduction in rainfall accumulation and intensity in both SSPs for the first type of basins, while the opposite applies to the other type. More generally, we propose a methodology that does not rely on observed time series of discharge, so especially for regions where those do not exist or are not available, and that can be applied to undertake future flood projections in the most data-scarce regions. This method allows future hydrological hazards to be estimated for essentially any region of the world.

• External Link

• Giustarini, L.; Schumann, G.J.-P.; Kettner, A.J.; Smith, A.; Nawrotzki, R. Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco. Water 2023, 15, 2722.