Evaluation of German Development Cooperation Support for Deforestation-Free Supply Chains

Deforestation refers to the clearing of forest areas for other purposes such as agriculture or residential development. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 420 million hectares of forest were lost to deforestation between 1990 and 2020, an area equivalent to that of the EU. Around 90% of this loss is attributable to industrial agriculture, primarily in tropical forests (FAO).

By adopting the EUDR, the EU aims at curbing deforestation in agricultural supply chains. The regulation includes due diligence obligations for companies in Member States and an import ban if these are not complied with. Products derived from wood, cocoa, coffee, rubber, oil palm, beef and soy may no longer be marketed in the EU if they originate from areas that have been deforested since 2020. This will likely change global forest governance and the requirements for all market operators, including producers in partner countries of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Article 30 of the EUDR encourages assistance for producer countries through technical and financial cooperation by Member States and the EU to promote forest protection and support the implementation of the regulation.

The overarching objective of this evaluation is to generate strategic recommendations for future BMZ support for deforestation-free supply chains. The evaluation is constructed around two complementary strands of analysis:

1. The first retrospective part evaluates how and to what extent German development cooperation has contributed to establishing and strengthening deforestation-free supply chains in its partner countries and how it should strategically develop its programming in this field.
2. The second part of the evaluation is prospective, analysing which priorities emerge in light of the EUDR, and Article 30 in particular, for German development cooperation by the BMZ in the field of deforestation-free supply chains.

The evaluation started in October 2025.

The first retrospective part of the evaluation focuses on three of the evaluation criteria established by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD-DAC): relevance, coherence and effectiveness. The relevance criterion focuses on the design of German development cooperation interventions to establish deforestation-free supply chains – specifically, on whether they are tailored to the demands and needs of partners and strategically plausible. The criterion of coherence is examined primarily with regard to the external coordination of development cooperation activities with other donors and activities of partner countries. The evaluation will assess the effectiveness of the support by determining which BMZ measures have previously proven successful in promoting deforestation-free supply chains in partner countries.

In the second prospective part, the evaluation focuses on the OECD-DAC criteria of relevance and coherence. In terms of relevance, it examines the potential impact of EUDR application in the partner country and the resulting needs, as well as the extent to which German development cooperation is already addressing these. Regarding coherence, it analyses whether strategic adjustments may be advisable for the BMZ in view of potential synergies with other EU donors and the strategic framework of Article 30 EUDR. This part of the analysis is not formally rated but serves to identify future development cooperation priorities.

The analysis is based on a comprehensive, theory-based approach and case studies, as well as primarily qualitative data analysis. Various methods are employed, including document analysis, interviews, a literature review, a descriptive portfolio analysis and an online survey.